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A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960, by Milton Friedman, Anna Jacobson Schwartz
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Writing in the June 1965 issue of theEconomic Journal, Harry G. Johnson begins with a sentence seemingly calibrated to the scale of the book he set himself to review: "The long-awaited monetary history of the United States by Friedman and Schwartz is in every sense of the term a monumental scholarly achievement--monumental in its sheer bulk, monumental in the definitiveness of its treatment of innumerable issues, large and small . . . monumental, above all, in the theoretical and statistical effort and ingenuity that have been brought to bear on the solution of complex and subtle economic issues."
Friedman and Schwartz marshaled massive historical data and sharp analytics to support the claim that monetary policy--steady control of the money supply--matters profoundly in the management of the nation's economy, especially in navigating serious economic fluctuations. In their influential chapter 7, The Great Contraction--which Princeton published in 1965 as a separate paperback--they address the central economic event of the century, the Depression. According to Hugh Rockoff, writing in January 1965: "If Great Depressions could be prevented through timely actions by the monetary authority (or by a monetary rule), as Friedman and Schwartz had contended, then the case for market economies was measurably stronger."
Milton Friedman won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1976 for work related to A Monetary History as well as to his other Princeton University Press book, A Theory of the Consumption Function (1957).
- Sales Rank: #209280 in Books
- Published on: 1971-11-01
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.04" h x 1.58" w x 6.03" l, 2.70 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 888 pages
Review
"A monumental scholarly accomplishment. . . . [sets] a new standard for the writing of monetary history."--The Economic Journal
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Five Stars
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Excelent
32 of 40 people found the following review helpful.
Missing graphs, charts, tables
By Gregory Olsen
A significant number of graphs, charts, and tables are missing from the Kindle version of this book, apparently because digital rights could not be secured for publication. Buy the print version of the book instead of wasting your money on the Kindle version.
17 of 21 people found the following review helpful.
Revolutionary, albeit flawed, Monetary Analysis
By Rufus Burgess
"A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960" by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz is an epic in economic literature. The authors concisely analyze nearly 100 years of monetary history and prove why monetary economics matter. Their work, originally published in 1963, offers immaculate insight into endogenous and exogenous economic variables that shaped US history.
When reviewing a classic text it is important to test it on two criteria: 1) it's ingenuity; and, 2) it's validity. In regards to ingenuity "Monetary History" paved the way towards a statistically grounded analysis of macroeconomics (in this case monetary theory). While "Monetary History" was groundbreaking it's truly memorable aspect is Ch7's "The Great Contraction". This chapter, which is now known as the money hypothesis, revolutionized the way economists thought about the Great
Deprhttp://www.amazon.com/review/R1C118WNLAM4I/ref=cm_cr_pr_cmt?ie=UTF8&ASIN=0691137943&nodeID=#wasThisHelpfulession. Ultimately, this analysis proved to be incorrect.
Why the work remains a classic, even though flawed, is because the sheer difficulty in producing such a feat. Friedman and Schwartz managed to put together a comprehensive 100 year monetary history in (a short) 700 pages. The amount of research required to take on such a project is hard to grasp. The footnotes in the "Monetary History" give a small glimpse into how much work was required to create this book. They alone are the size of a mid-sized economic text. Throughout the text the authors synthesis a wide range of evidence, often being forced to recalculate the statistics given to them, and somehow come out with a fairly consistent history.
The work is so encompassing it is impossible in an Amazon book review to point out all of the prescient ideas presented in a "Monetary History". Here is a short list off the top of my head: 1) money matters in the short-run; 2) active gov't policy can prevent bank panics if correctly implemented; 3) Consistent misperception regarding economics have OFTEN created bad policy (both in the private and public sphere); 4) the gold standard was never good (and we never had anything near an ACTUAL gold standard); 5) An excellent review of business cycle contractions between 1844-1960; 6)Everything you wanted to know about the composition of banking mechanisms from 1867-1960. There are many, many more...
Friedman's "Monetary History" analysis does occasionally feel awkward (this tends to happen when his quantitative analysis does not account for history and he is forced to make qualitative assumptions). 1) The entire Great Contraction rested on the qualitative factor of not having a 'Great Man' running the Federal Reserve; 2) Deflation existed side by side with rapid economic expansion in the 1880's, which Friedman finds interesting, but no attempt is made to ascertain whether monetary issues had any recessionary effects on potential growth; 3) The entire 48-60' analysis exerts a strong ideological stance that did not seem to exist in the earlier chapters. (many more minor hiccups exist and for the most part Friedman is willing to admit when he cannot reasonably prove causation).
However, two major problems exist in the "Monetary History".
1) The assumption that money does not matter in the long-run is unsupported through their analysis. Friedman and Schwartz fail to find any long lasting effects regarding changes in the price level and money stock to changes in economic activity. This view, which is a very simple look at correlations, is essentially embracing a negation. They fail to find a connection between monetary economics and business cycles so it must not exist. Though this view has little empirical evidence it is made several times throughout the work (and in almost every case the statement seems to be completely out of place). The claim that money is 'neutral' has forever changed economics by being included in the Neoclassical Synthesis.
2) Friedman's chapter on the velocity of money is by far the weakest part of his text. After going on for ~700 pages with precise attention to quantitative analysis Friedman is forced to argue, in a mere 3 pages, that changes in velocity must be due to rational expectations (with little empirical evidence). Friedman's assumption that Velocity exhibits a secular decline with rising income is CRUCIAL when analyzing Monetarism. The Quantity Theory of Money states: Money*Velocity=Price*Output --- M*V=P*Y (this is a rearrangement of Fisher's equation -- See Michael Emmett Bradely's review for a far superior theoretical analysis of this equation). If Velocity can be considered constant then changes in M = changes in P*Y. This means all that is needed to have stable business cycles is an unchanging, or better yet a slightly increasing, money supply. HOWEVER, this flawed assumption is why Monetarism is so difficult to implement into policy. Friedman's tentative assumption in his "Monetary History" became the dogma of Monetarism.
"A Monetary History of the US, 1867-1960" is a revolutionary, albeit flawed, canon in economic literature.
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